♠ ♥ TEXAS HOLDEM HAND ODDS & PROBABILITIES WITH CHARTS ♦ ♣

This is one of the most important web pages at jackasspoker.com. Knowing how good your starting hand is preflop or your odds of catching your nut flush by the river should really change the way you play the game. Most donkeys tend to find little time to learn the true strength of Poker hands. Donkeys frequently prefer luck and a gamblers chance over statistics and logic. Then they wonder why they keep failing to have a consistent game like the popular players you see regularly on television.

It's fairly common to find casual players that pay to roll with their favorite starting hands (which are usually weak cards) because they seem to win with them often. Some players have a "feeling" that a hand will win for them regardless of which two cards they are looking down at. Although certain weak starting hands could be lucky for some people, it is much more likely that players notice all of the times that they win with a particular hand than when they don't win. Some of us like to only remember when we took in huge pots and often let the losses and many times of not hitting the board slip away from our memory.

Before studying the statistics in the charts below, consider the fact that Poker holds a lot of similarities to a High Jump competition. In the High Jump, you need to clear the bar in order to pass a height level. There isn't much of a difference in Texas Holdem Poker. For example, if your post River hand results in 4 Queens with a Ten Kicker and another player has 4 Queens with a Jack Kicker, you would have the inferior hand regardless of how strong your hand is compared to an average winning hand. Just as if you jumped a mere quarter of an inch too short of clearing an 8 foot High Jump bar and knocked it over, completing hands in Poker just a little short in relation to your opponent would result in failure. Luckily or unluckily, depending on your point of view, Poker isn't just as simple as jumping higher than all of your opponents to win. The added X factor is in the betting and mystery of your opponents' hands. Because of this, the player with the best hand doesn't necessarily win in Poker. To be successful in Texas Holdem you have to be confident that you have the best hand or you must force the players with the better hands to fold away their winners.

Odds of being dealt the stronger and more popular starting hands:

The chart below shows the odds of starting off with specific hands. For example, the odds of being dealt any pocket pair is 16 to 1 as seen on the first line of the chart. This means that for every 17 (16 + 1) hands being dealt to you, 1 hand should be a pocket pair and 16 hands would be unpaired on average. The probability of being dealt any pocket pair is 0.0588 or 5.88% of hands dealt to you. And since rank (like the height of a pole in High Jump) often plays a significant role in deciding which player the dealer shoves the pot to in the end, the higher ranked cards are displayed more prominently than the lower ranked cards in the statistics. So it should be no surprise that bigger cards are generally better because they statistically win more often than lower ranked cards.

Starting Hand Probability Odds
Any Pocket Pair	0.0588	16:1
Suited	0.2353	3.25:1
Connectors	0.1569	5.38:1
Suited Connectors	0.0392	24.5:1
Pocket Aces (or any specific pair)	0.0045	220:1
AA, KK, or AK	0.0211	46.36:1
Both cards ranked Queen or better	0.0498	19.09:1
Both cards ranked Jack or better	0.0905	10.05:1
Both cards ranked 10 or better	0.1433	5.98:1
Both cards ranked 9 or better	0.2081	3.8:1
AA, KK, or QQ	0.0136	72.67:1
AA, KK, QQ, or JJ	0.0181	54.25:1
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT	0.0226	43.2:1
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, or 99	0.0271	35.83:1
AK (or any specific non-pair)	0.0121	81.88:1
AK Suited (or any specific suited cards)	0.0030	330.5:1
AK or AQ	0.0181	54.25:1
AK, AQ, or AJ	0.0241	40.44:1
AK, AQ, AJ, or AT	0.0302	32.15:1
Ace with a Suited card	0.0181	54.25:1
Pair, Suited, or Connectors	0.4118	1.43:1
Suited Connectors both ranked 10 or better	0.0121	81.88:1
Suited bother ranked 10 or better	0.0302	32.15:1
Connectors both ranked 10 or better	0.0483	19.72:1
Pocket AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK	0.0302	32.15:1

After the Flop, chances of improving to a better hand:

Do you ever wonder what the odds are of hitting the board, connecting an Inside Straight, or finally completing a Royal Flush? That is what this chart is about. Once you see the Flop it is good to know where you stand. Knowing the odds will help you realize when you should call, raise, or fold. For instance, if you are on a Flush draw and your only opponent raises to 4 times the pot, you should probably lay the cards down since you do not have pot odds with only about a 35% chance of completing the Flush after the Flop.

Quick rules of thumb to remember when calculating odds and probabilities:

If you are like most people and can't memorize the charts above, you should at least try to remember some of the basic estimated numbers of Poker. Below is a great reference to use when trying consider what you should do with your hand.

Scenario What's Important to Know
Pocket Suited Cards	Gives you only about a 3% bonus chance of winning VS the same ranked non-suited cards
Post-Flop, catching at least 1 of your outs by the River	There is about a 4% chance of catching each out. Simply multiply the number of outs by 4 to estimate your odds.
Post-Flop, catching at least 1 of your outs on the River	There is about a 2% chance of catching each out. Simply multiply the number of outs by 2 to estimate your odds.
(Heads up) 2 unpaired overcards VS 2 unpaired cards (Ex: As9h VS 8d4c)	The overcards have about a 65% chance of winning
(Heads up) 1st & 3rd ranked cards VS 2nd & 4th ranked cards (Ex: Kh7c VS Jd4s)	The 1st & 3rd ranked cards have roughly a 60% chance of winning
(Heads up) 1 overcard & 1 undercard VS 2 middle cards (Ex: Kh2d VS Qc6s)	The 1 overcard & 1 undercard have roughly a 55% chance of winning
(Heads up) Pocket Pair VS Pocket Pair (Ex: ThTc VS 5d5s)	The higher Pocket Pair has about an 80% chance of winning
(Heads up) Pocket Pair VS 2 overcards (Ex: 8d8s VS Kh9c)	The Pocket Pair usually has over a 50% chance of winning
(Heads up) Pocket Pair VS 1 overcard & 1 undercard (Ex: 7s7h VS Qc5d)	The Pocket Pair has about a 70% chance of winning
(Heads up) Pocket Pair VS 2 undercards (Ex: JcJs VS 8h7d)	The Pocket Pair has over an 80% chance of winning

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